至纯科技下修业绩预告：净利润暴跌超九成，半导体设备龙头遭遇“寒潮”

Core Viewpoint - The leading domestic semiconductor equipment company, Zhichun Technology (603690.SH), has revised its profit forecast for 2024, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million to 30 million yuan, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 92.05% to 94.70% [1][2] Group 1: Performance Revision - The profit forecast was revised down from a previous estimate of 90 million to 135 million yuan, marking a reduction of over 70% [1] - The primary reason for this performance revision is a surge in credit impairment losses, with the company increasing its provision for impairment on "other receivables" and raising the bad debt provision rate for accounts receivable by 2 percentage points [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The performance decline reflects deeper challenges within the semiconductor equipment industry, driven by a global semiconductor cycle downturn that has led to reduced capital expenditures from wafer fabs [1] - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to contract by 14.7% year-on-year in 2024, with key clients like SMIC and Yangtze Memory Technologies cutting their budgets for wet process equipment [1] Group 3: Profitability and R&D Investment - The intensifying price war in the industry has resulted in a decrease in the gross margin of high-end wet process equipment from 42.3% in 2023 to 35.8% in 2024, a drop of 6.5 percentage points [1] - Zhichun Technology's R&D expenses have significantly increased in 2024 as the company continues to invest in strategic business layouts and advanced process equipment, which may yield future performance advantages despite short-term risks [2] Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of Q3 2023, the company's accounts receivable balance reached 2.939 billion yuan, accounting for over 20% of total assets, raising concerns about potential bad debt risks if downstream customers continue to deteriorate [2] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has risen to 62.73%, with a significant increase in interest-bearing liabilities compared to the beginning of the year, indicating heightened financial pressure [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The performance revision is seen as a reflection of both individual risk exposure and the broader context of the semiconductor equipment industry's cyclical bottom and domestic substitution trends [2] - The ability of Zhichun Technology to achieve breakthroughs in high-end equipment technology will be crucial for its future performance, especially in the anticipated recovery of the global semiconductor equipment market in 2025 [2]