政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置行业周报

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to remain a stable investment opportunity due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable macroeconomic policies, with insurance funds starting new allocations in coal and other dividend sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic economic performance is currently weak, with the U.S. in a rate-cutting cycle and domestic interest rates also declining [1][4]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a focus on supportive fiscal and monetary policies [2][4]. - The total issuance of ultra-long special bonds in 2025 is set to be 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from 2024, aimed at boosting infrastructure investment [3]. Group 2: Coal Price and Supply - As of April 25, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 655 yuan/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week, while CCTD thermal coal was priced at 665 yuan/ton, down 1.34% [2]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81% as of April 20, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2]. - As of April 25, inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 31.099 million tons, down 2.7% from the previous week, indicating a relatively high inventory level [2]. Group 3: Demand and Production - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants reached 1.818 million tons as of April 24, an increase of 2.48% week-on-week [2]. - The domestic cement industry operating rate was 49.04%, down 1.82 percentage points, while methanol production was at 80.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [2]. - The profitability of major domestic steel mills was reported at 57.6%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, supporting demand for coking coal [2]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment, with a trend towards high dividends and frequent payouts from listed coal companies [4]. - The coal market is expected to see a rebound in demand and prices following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the arrival of the spring construction season [4]. - Selected coal stocks are anticipated to benefit from this trend, with specific focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others based on their dividend potential and cyclical characteristics [4].