跨境ETF溢价转折价，美、日股市前景如何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the premium rates of cross-border ETFs, particularly the Japanese TOPIX ETF, reflects increased caution among domestic investors due to tariff uncertainties and market volatility [1][8]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Sentiment - As of April 28, the premium rate of the Japanese TOPIX ETF has fallen into negative territory at -0.33%, indicating a significant drop in investor interest [1][8]. - The premium rates for various ETFs linked to the US and Japanese stock markets have decreased to below 1%, compared to a peak of 20% last year [1]. - The US 50 ETF, which tracks the MSCI USA 50 Index, has seen a cumulative decline of 11% since the beginning of 2025, with a premium rate narrowing to approximately 0.78% [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is currently fluctuating within a range of 5000 to 5500 points, influenced by mixed factors including tariff policy flexibility and earnings expectations [4]. - Despite the overall challenging macro environment, approximately 46% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings exceeding expectations, with only 10% significantly below expectations [5]. - The corporate buyback window has opened, with an approved buyback scale of $377.1 billion so far this year, expected to reach $1.45 trillion for the year, providing substantial market support [6]. Group 3: Japanese Market Outlook - Japanese equities are viewed positively by institutions, with expectations of continued wage growth and inflation stabilization, which may support the stock market [10][11]. - The introduction of the NISA system in January 2024 is anticipated to accelerate the inflow of tax-exempt savings into the Japanese stock market, potentially increasing local investor interest [11][12]. - The governance reforms in Japanese companies have attracted significant international capital, improving transparency and reducing volatility in the stock market [12].