特朗普若罢免鲍威尔，就动了美元的根基，美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌

Core Viewpoint - Trump's challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) poses a significant risk to the credibility of the US dollar, potentially undermining its status as the world's reserve currency [2][14][17]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump has openly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting he should resign and threatening to remove him if necessary [3][4]. - The conflict between the President and the Fed is not new, as historical tensions have existed since the Fed's inception [3][4]. - Trump's remarks have led to a decline in the dollar index, which has dropped approximately 9% since January 20, marking one of the worst performances for the dollar in the first 100 days of a presidency since 1973 [14][16]. Group 2: Historical Context of Fed Independence - The Fed was established in 1913 to prevent excessive concentration of power in Washington and to avoid control by Wall Street financial giants [6][7]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the dollar, as it allows for the formulation of monetary policy free from political influence [12][13][17]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates is driven by the need to manage the US's substantial debt, which exceeds $36 trillion [23][26]. - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and full employment, often requiring it to act contrary to short-term political interests [12][31]. - The potential loss of Fed independence could lead to increased inflation and a decline in the dollar's international standing, as seen in historical precedents [21][22][30]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Speculative traders are increasingly shorting the dollar, with short positions reaching approximately $10 billion, indicating a lack of confidence in the dollar's stability [16][14]. - The market's reaction to Trump's threats suggests a growing uncertainty regarding the Fed's ability to operate independently, which could have broader implications for global financial stability [18][19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts express concern that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to a structural shift in global asset allocation away from the dollar [17][20]. - The ongoing political pressure on the Fed may result in a prolonged period of uncertainty, affecting both domestic and international economic conditions [18][19].