Workflow
去年业绩创16年新低,今年一季度止跌,张裕何时迎来拐点?

Core Viewpoint - Zhangyu, a leading domestic wine producer, has faced significant challenges, with its performance showing minimal growth in the first quarter of this year after a substantial decline in the previous year [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Zhangyu reported revenue of 811 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 0.21% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization after last year's declines [2][3]. - For the full year 2023, Zhangyu's revenue was 3.277 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.26%, and net profit was 305 million yuan, down 42.68%, marking the lowest performance in 16 years [2][4][5]. Sales Breakdown - The decline in revenue was primarily due to significant drops in both wine and brandy sales, with wine revenue at 2.438 billion yuan (down 22.32%) and brandy revenue at 740 million yuan (down 35.8%) [4][5]. - Sales volume for wine decreased by 12.22% to approximately 57,700 tons, while brandy sales volume fell by 31.56% to about 20,500 tons [3][4]. Market Conditions - The domestic wine market has been experiencing low demand, exacerbated by increased competition from imported wines, particularly after the removal of tariffs on Australian wines [6][7]. - In 2023, the import volume of wine rose by 13.6% to approximately 280 million liters, while domestic production fell by 14.5% [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, there are optimistic views regarding Zhangyu's potential recovery, driven by changing consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol and more casual drinking experiences [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of at least 3.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.7% from the previous year [8].