CARR Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Carrier Global (CARR) is expected to report a decline in both earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at 57 cents per share, reflecting an 8.06% year-over-year decrease, and revenues projected at $5.11 billion, indicating a 17.4% decline [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is 57 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 8.06% [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.11 billion, indicating a 17.4% year-over-year decline [1]. Group 2: Recent Performance Trends - Carrier Global has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.68% [2]. - The HVAC segment is expected to contribute to top-line growth, driven by strong demand for heating and cooling systems in residential and commercial applications [3]. Group 3: Segment Performance Insights - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 HVAC revenues is $4.32 billion, indicating a decline of 4.87% year-over-year [4]. - Residential HVAC orders in North America increased approximately 10-15% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with global commercial HVAC orders also up 10%, trends likely to continue in Q1 [4]. - The aftermarket segment has shown consistent double-digit growth, expected to continue in the upcoming quarter [5]. Group 4: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The data center market is anticipated to grow significantly due to increased heat generation from AI chips, with Carrier Global aiming to capitalize on this growth [6]. - The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions is expected to enhance Carrier's capabilities in heat pump technology and sustainable solutions [6]. - Weakness in Europe and China, along with softness in commercial refrigeration, is expected to negatively impact Carrier's performance in the upcoming quarter [7]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction Model - Carrier Global has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a moderate chance of an earnings beat [8].