经济学家调查显示：全球衰退风险因美国关税冲击而上升

Core Points - The global recession risk is rising, with most economists believing that U.S. tariff policies have harmed business confidence [1][2] - Global economic growth forecast has been downgraded from 3.0% to 2.7%, with the IMF's slightly higher prediction at 2.8% [1] - 92% of economists view tariffs as having a "negative" impact on business sentiment, while only 8% consider the impact "neutral" [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to significant market volatility, causing stock markets to lose trillions of dollars and shaking investor confidence in U.S. assets [1] - Due to uncertainty and high tariffs, global companies are lowering revenue expectations, indicating that trade tensions are affecting both short-term market performance and long-term strategic planning [1] - In the 2025 global growth forecast, the median growth predictions for 28 out of 48 economies have been downgraded, with China and Russia expected to grow at 4.5% and 1.7% respectively, outperforming the U.S. [1] Future Projections - The growth expectations for 2026 show a similar downward trend, with 60% of economists rating the global recession risk as "high" or "very high" [2] - Central banks' efforts to curb inflation through rapid interest rate hikes are being hindered by tariff policies, which are seen as inflationary and potentially detrimental to real income and demand [2] - Over 65% of major central banks expect to miss their inflation targets this year, indicating significant challenges for monetary policymakers in the current complex economic environment [2]