How Should You Play AAL Stock Post the Narrower-Than-Expected Q1 Loss?

Core Viewpoint - American Airlines reported a narrower-than-expected loss per share for Q1 2025, but the loss widened year-over-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the airline industry due to tariff-induced uncertainties [1][7]. Financial Performance - AAL's operating revenues decreased by 0.2% year-over-year to $12.55 billion, with passenger revenues, which account for 90.8% of total revenues, declining by 0.6% to $11.4 billion [4]. - Despite the narrower loss, annual earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased due to the uncertainty surrounding the airline's outlook [7][8]. Guidance and Outlook - AAL expects earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1 for Q2 2025 but has withdrawn its full-year guidance for 2025 due to the uncertain economic environment [2][3]. - Other airlines, including Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, have also withdrawn their full-year guidance, reflecting a broader trend in the industry amid economic uncertainty [3]. Market Performance - AAL's stock has declined in double digits year-to-date, primarily due to the slowdown in domestic air travel demand caused by tariffs [9]. - The company's share price has remained relatively stable since the earnings release, but overall performance has been poor compared to industry peers [9]. Valuation - AAL is currently trading at a discount compared to industry levels based on the forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio, with a Value Score of A, indicating potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [12]. - Low fuel costs, which decreased by 13.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, could positively impact the company's bottom line [15]. Challenges - The airline faces near-term headwinds from tariff-induced demand slowdowns, high labor costs (with salaries and wages up 9.2% year-over-year), and declining earnings estimates [16][17]. - Given the current uncertainties, it is advised to avoid investing in AAL stock until more clarity emerges [17].