5 Construction Stocks Set to Carve a Beat in Q1 Earnings

Core Insights - The U.S. construction sector is experiencing a deceleration, influenced by high borrowing costs, labor shortages, material price volatility, and regulatory complexity [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - Public sector investments in infrastructure and manufacturing have supported growth, while residential remodeling and selective new home construction have posed challenges [1] - The construction sector's total earnings have decreased by 20% year-over-year, with revenues down by 4.2% [2] - Approximately 35.3% of the construction sector's market capitalization on the S&P 500 Index has reported earnings, with 57.1% beating EPS estimates and 42.9% surpassing revenue estimates [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Federal spending through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) has been a significant tailwind, particularly in transportation, water infrastructure, and broadband projects [3] - Industrial construction projects related to the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act have also contributed to growth, focusing on semiconductor fabs, EV battery plants, and clean energy facilities [3] Group 3: Residential Market Challenges - The residential construction market faces high mortgage rates, seasonal impacts, inflationary pressures, and rising costs, which have negatively affected performance [4] - Homebuilders are under pressure due to increased incentives and lower average selling prices, impacting margins [4] Group 4: Commercial Construction Insights - The commercial construction market shows mixed but resilient performance, with industrial and warehouse projects benefiting from e-commerce and supply chain reshoring [5] - Data center construction is gaining traction due to cloud computing and AI infrastructure needs, while hospitality construction is recovering alongside rebounding travel [5] Group 5: Q1 Earnings Expectations - The construction sector is expected to see a 12.8% decline in earnings for Q1, a decrease from the previous quarter's growth of 1.1% [6] - Revenues are projected to decline by 3.3%, indicating a slowdown from the prior quarter's growth of 1.6% [6] Group 6: Company Highlights - Dream Finders Homes is expected to report a first-quarter EPS of 61 cents, reflecting a 10.9% growth year-over-year [11] - Primoris Services anticipates a first-quarter EPS of 72 cents, representing a 53.2% increase from the previous year [13] - Potlatch is projected to report a first-quarter EPS of 20 cents, improving from break-even earnings a year ago [14] - Martin Marietta Materials expects a first-quarter EPS of $1.92, a slight decline from the previous year [15] - MasTec is likely to report a first-quarter EPS of 34 cents, indicating a significant 361.5% growth year-over-year [16]