中信证券：美国财政压力对美债影响几何？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. fiscal pressure is expected to impact U.S. Treasury yields, particularly with concerns over budget resolutions and potential government shutdowns [1] - The U.S. Congress passed a budget resolution for the fiscal year 2025 in April, but it lacks legal effect and cannot directly allocate funds [1] - If the budget bill is not passed by September 30, a temporary funding bill will be required to avoid government shutdown risks [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the Trump tax cuts this year is anticipated to further increase the U.S. fiscal deficit pressure [1] - Market concerns regarding fiscal pressure and inflation risks are likely to keep U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the mid-term premium and inflation expectations, elevated [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain above 4.0% for some time, with future downward movement dependent on Trump’s policies, the economic pressures in the U.S., and Federal Reserve statements [1]