智通财经网·2025-04-29 00:35Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is expected to be a turning point for China's steel industry, with Q1 anticipated to mark a long-term performance inflection point [1][8] Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China is projected to reach 1,509.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved a total profit of 7.51 billion yuan, marking the first profitable quarter since Q1 2022 [2] - Key steel enterprises saw a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in operating costs, while the average sales profit margin for steel products increased by 0.67 percentage points [2] - The production of construction rebar decreased by 2.9% to 48.11 million tons, while the output of thick plates, medium plates, coated plates, and plated plates for manufacturing increased by over 10%, totaling 38.84 million tons [2] - The national crude steel production remained stable at 259 million tons, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [2] Supply-Side Reform - Supply-side reform is crucial for the steel industry as it enters a phase of reduction and quality improvement [3] - The government emphasizes addressing structural contradictions in key industries through supply and demand measures, promoting the exit of outdated and inefficient production capacity [3] - The steel industry is characterized by overcapacity, and further consolidation is challenging after a decade of integration post-2015 [3] Regulatory Framework - The "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" revised in 2025 sets stricter requirements for steel enterprises, including compliance with laws, environmental protection, and quality management [4] - The new regulations provide a framework for the elimination and upgrading of production capacity in the industry [4] Profit Redistribution - The profit distribution within the black industry, which includes coal, coke, steel, and iron ore, is undergoing changes, with coal and iron ore's profit share decreasing to 91% [5] - The steel and coke sectors are entering a marginal profit phase, benefiting from ongoing industry restructuring and the exit of inefficient capacity [5]