智通财经网·2025-04-29 00:53Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is driven by investor sentiment influenced by Trump's policies, leading to increased buying of non-US assets and a significant decline in the dollar's value [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.5%, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 7% due to stagnant trade agreement progress and disappointing manufacturing activity data [1]. - JPMorgan forecasts a second round of dollar weakness, indicating a cyclical shift that may last several quarters [2]. - Speculative traders have increased their bearish bets on the dollar, with net short positions reaching a new high since September 2024 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Other Currencies - The euro is expected to benefit significantly from the dollar's weakness, with a year-to-date increase of over 10% against the dollar, prompting JPMorgan to raise its year-end euro forecast from 1.14 to 1.20 [5]. - The British pound has strengthened due to capital outflows from US assets, with expectations of it reaching 1.39 USD within 12 months, despite potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5]. - The strengthening of the pound may also be linked to improving UK-EU economic relations, with upcoming events potentially leading to a reassessment of post-Brexit ties [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.2%, as traders await further guidance from upcoming labor market reports [4]. - The tightening of US immigration and fiscal policies is seen as detrimental to the "American exceptionalism" theme that has supported markets in recent years [4].