丁辛醇：震荡下行 弱势整理

Core Viewpoint - The market for butanol and isobutanol has experienced significant price declines since January 2024, with butanol prices dropping over 40% and isobutanol prices down approximately 4% year-to-date, indicating ongoing supply-demand challenges in the second quarter [1][2][3]. Group 1: Butanol Market Analysis - Since January 2024, the price of industrial-grade butanol in Shandong has decreased to 6350-6400 RMB per ton, a decline of 9.5% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw butanol prices fall from 7025 RMB in early January to around 6600 RMB by the end of March, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 6% [2]. - The butanol market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the second quarter, with prices projected to fluctuate between 6000-6700 RMB, driven by high operating rates and slow inventory digestion [4]. Group 2: Isobutanol Market Analysis - The isobutanol market also faced downward pressure, with prices fluctuating significantly due to factors such as downstream stocking rhythms and factory inventory strategies [3]. - In early April, isobutanol prices fell below the first quarter's low, indicating a cautious market sentiment and intensified supply-demand negotiations [3]. - The second quarter may see isobutanol prices initially decline before potentially recovering, with projected prices in the range of 7300-7800 RMB, influenced by seasonal demand and supply adjustments [4]. Group 3: Impact of Tariff Wars - The ongoing US-China tariff conflict has had a limited direct impact on the butanol and isobutanol markets due to the relatively small volume of trade between the two countries [5]. - However, the tariff situation has adversely affected exports of certain PVC products, such as gloves, which could indirectly suppress demand for isobutanol, as these products are significant in the downstream consumption of plasticizers [6]. - The export volume of PVC gloves to the US reached 215,300 tons, accounting for over 47% of total exports, which may impact domestic consumption of dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP) and subsequently affect isobutanol demand [6].