Market Overview - On April 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened before retreating, with trading mainly conducted by traders and some mainstream suppliers quoting prices. The main port for May saw transactions at a premium of 80 to 140 for contract 09, with some higher transactions at a premium of 150, and prices negotiated in the range of 4555 to 4620 [1] Cost Analysis - As of April 28, the PTA spot processing fee was around 462 yuan per ton, while the processing fees for TA2505 and TA2509 contracts were 429 yuan per ton and 357 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Baicheng had a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, Yisheng Dahuaz had 3.75 million tons, and Taiwan Chemical restarted 1.2 million tons, while Jiatuo had 3 million tons under maintenance. PTA operating rates adjusted to 78.9%, an increase of 3.5% [3] - Demand: Last week, the overall polyester operating rate slightly decreased to 93.6%, a drop of 0.2%. The bottle chip production increased, while short fiber facilities restarted, and long filament facilities underwent maintenance and localized reductions. On April 28, the price of polyester yarn rose, but overall sales remained average. The slight increase in raw material prices and the low prices of polyester yarn stimulated some downstream speculation, leading to increased volume on the last two trading days. However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and polyester yarn profits have significantly declined, especially for FDY, which is now at a loss. Crude oil prices remain relatively firm, with WTI fluctuating between 60 and 65 dollars, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for yarn prices. Polyester factories are currently focused on maintaining prices, and any price increases will require demand support [3] Market Outlook - In May, there are many planned maintenance activities for PTA facilities, and the short-term pressure on downstream polyester inventory has eased. It is expected that polyester will maintain high operating rates in the short term, and the PTA supply-demand balance will continue to be tight. Additionally, some suppliers are reducing May contract supplies, and with the upcoming Labor Day holiday, the demand for stocking by polyester factories is expected to increase, leading to a faster decline in PTA inventory and a strong short-term PTA basis. The supply-demand dynamics for PTA are expected to strengthen, and both PX and PTA valuations are relatively low, providing strong support for PTA prices. Recently, PTA has shown relative strength compared to oil prices, with the price spread between PTA and crude oil widening. However, negative feedback from the demand side and limited oil price drivers may suppress the rebound potential of PTA. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach before the holiday or short-term rolling low-long operations; TA9-1 is viewed as a short-term positive spread, while a mid-term negative spread is anticipated; PTA is positioned positively within the industry chain [4]
PTA：供需驱动偏强 价格支撑偏强
Jin Tou Wang·2025-04-29 02:04