Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 764 CNY/ton (+3), and Brazilian mixed powder at 778 CNY/ton (+6) [1] - The main iron ore futures contract closed at 710.5 CNY/ton, up 0.21% (+1.5) [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 809 CNY and 797 CNY, respectively. The basis for the May contract for PB powder is approximately 46.6 CNY/ton [2] Demand Dynamics - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons month-on-month. The blast furnace operating rate is 84.33%, up 0.77% from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 91.60%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points. The profit margin for steel mills is 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points [3] Supply Situation - Global shipments have slightly increased this week, with a total of 31.882 million tons shipped, up 2.627 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.584 million tons, an increase of 3.206 million tons. Australia shipped 19.952 million tons, up 1.960 million tons, with 16.472 million tons going to China, an increase of 729,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 7.632 million tons, up 1.246 million tons. The total port arrivals were 25.128 million tons, an increase of 1.875 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of April 24, the inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons. The iron ore arrivals at ports have rebounded, and the unloading efficiency has improved, leading to an increase in port inventory. The number of ships waiting at ports remains high. The steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 20.11% to 90.7303 million tons, with daily consumption slightly rising as mills maintain a low inventory strategy [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced fluctuations, influenced by production restriction news, indicating that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in the near term. The specifics of the production restrictions are yet to be determined. The significant increase in daily pig iron production to 2.44 million tons is attributed to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of high furnace operations. The sustainability of this high production level will depend on terminal demand. The market for finished steel continues to deplete inventory, with rebar and wire rod showing a pullback after a surge, while hot-rolled steel remains stable and cold-rolled steel shows slight recovery. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, while port arrivals have significantly decreased. The recovery in unloading efficiency has led to an increase in port inventory, with high levels of ships waiting. Looking ahead, the sustainability of high pig iron production will depend on terminal demand, with marginal changes expected in exports and infrastructure. A decline in exports is likely, and domestic demand will be crucial. The current high pig iron production coupled with inventory accumulation and increased overseas shipments expected in May and June suggests that supply and demand pressures will intensify, leading to continued downward pressure on iron ore prices [6]
铁矿石：铁水大幅增长 限产消息扰动
Jin Tou Wang·2025-04-29 02:11