万能险，还“万能”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The universal insurance market, once thriving and reaching a scale of over one trillion, is now experiencing a decline due to regulatory tightening and a shift in focus towards long-term protection products [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Universal insurance premiums for 2024 are projected to be 578.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3% [1]. - The peak of universal insurance premiums occurred in 2016, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, following a significant growth period from 2015 [2][4]. - The average settlement interest rate for universal insurance products has dropped to 2.86% by the end of 2024, down 54 basis points from the previous year [8]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - New regulations prohibit the development of universal insurance products with a term of less than five years, aiming to promote long-term insurance solutions [6][10]. - The minimum guaranteed interest rate for universal insurance has been reduced to 1.5% starting from October 2024, with a dynamic adjustment mechanism linked to market interest rates [8][10]. - The new regulations require insurance companies to base policy benefits on actual investment returns, preventing the inflation of account investment yields [14]. Group 3: Product Characteristics - Universal insurance products have historically been attractive due to their high yields, with some offering rates as high as 6% to 7% during peak periods [2][4]. - The shift in focus from high-yield, short-term products to long-term protection is expected to reshape the market landscape [9][15]. - The introduction of a special reserve mechanism aims to smooth out investment yield fluctuations, similar to dividend insurance [15]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The tightening of regulations and the shift in product focus may lead to a contraction in the overall premium scale of the universal insurance market, which has remained below 600 billion yuan in recent years [15]. - Smaller insurance companies may face increased operational costs due to compliance with new regulations, potentially leading to a reduction in their universal insurance offerings [14].