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沪农商行(601825):贷款投放加快 分红率提升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank is experiencing a recovery in loan issuance, with both corporate and retail segments showing improvement. Total assets grew by 6.9% in 2024 and 6.8% in Q1 2025, while loans increased by 6.6% and 6.2% respectively. The bank's corporate loans grew by 5.6% in 2024, with a further increase to 7.4% in Q1 2025, and retail loans showed a growth of 1.3% for the year, improving to 3.3% in Q1 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The bank's performance faced pressure in Q1, with operating income declining by 7.4% and net profit growth of only 0.3%. This decline was attributed to a drop in net interest income and investment income. However, there is an expectation for improvement in non-interest income due to increased settlement and guarantee fee income [2][3] - The net interest margin for 2024 is projected at 1.50%, a decrease of 17 basis points, with the yield on interest-earning assets dropping by 30 basis points to 3.36%. The cost of deposits significantly decreased by 17 basis points to 1.78%, indicating potential for further reduction in deposit costs in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The bank's risk compensation ability remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.97% in Q1. The provision coverage ratio stands at 339.27%, indicating a solid asset quality. The bank's focus on loan and overdue rates shows slight increases, but overall asset quality is stable [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to rise to 33.91%, reflecting a strong willingness to distribute dividends [3] Group 4 - The bank is expected to benefit from regional economic recovery and accelerated credit issuance, with a stable asset expansion. The management of deposit costs suggests there is still room for savings on liabilities. The bank's solid operations and adequate provisions and capital levels indicate a continued ability to maintain high dividend rates [4] - The forecast for net profit growth has been adjusted to 0.8% and 1.3% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an increase in the 2027 forecast to 2.2%. Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.32, 1.34, and 1.37, with current price-to-book ratios of 0.59, 0.51, and 0.45 [4]