中煤能源(601898)：自产煤价跌致业绩回落 关注高分红潜力和成长性

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.7% [1] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 33.35 million and 64.14 million tons of commodity coal, representing year-on-year increases of 1.9% and 0.4%, but quarter-on-quarter decreases of 5.4% and 19.1% [2] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 487.2 yuan per ton, down 17% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The comprehensive cost of coal was 371 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.4% [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 116.2 yuan, down 26.7% year-on-year and 11.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3: Coal Chemical Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the production of polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 37.8, 52.8, 51.4, and 13.9 million tons, with year-on-year changes of -3.6%, +11.2%, +24.8%, and +6.9% respectively [2] - The selling prices for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate were 6,876, 1,702, 1,794, and 1,861 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.4%, -23.9%, +7.1%, and -17.3% respectively [2] - The gross profit per ton for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 1,101, 360, 380, and 386 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +16%, -46.7%, +675.8%, and -47.6% respectively [2] Group 4: Growth Potential and Dividend Policy - The company has two coal mines under construction, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively, set to begin trial production by the end of 2025 [3] - The company plans to invest 23.888 billion yuan in a coal deep processing project, with a construction scale of 900,000 tons/year of polyolefins, and has already completed significant investment [3] - The cash dividend amount for 2024 is expected to be 6.35 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 32.87%, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [3]