Camel Group(SH:601311) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:35Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 4.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 237 million yuan, up 51.9% year-on-year and up 87.1% quarter-on-quarter, meeting market expectations [1] Industry Trends - The lead-acid battery shipments continued to show steady growth, with an estimated shipment of nearly 10 GWh in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5-6%. The growth in both the original equipment and aftermarket segments remained stable, while overseas shipments benefited from the capacity and order releases from the Malaysia factory, showing a year-on-year increase of 20-25%. The overall revenue from lead-acid batteries is estimated to be between 3-3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6-7%, with lead prices higher than the same period in 2024. The gross margin for lead-acid batteries is expected to recover, with an estimated gross margin of nearly 19% in Q1, an increase of 1-1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The low-voltage lithium battery segment saw further volume growth, with shipments exceeding 200,000 units in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20-25%. Revenue is estimated to be between 150-160 million yuan, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter and showing a year-on-year increase of 260-270% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The company benefited from scale effects, continuing the trend of reduced losses in lithium battery profitability. The period expense ratio improved significantly, with a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Specific expenses such as sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses saw year-on-year changes of -0.8, -0.7, -0.4, and -0.5 percentage points respectively, and quarter-on-quarter changes of -1.1, -0.5, -0.2, and -0.4 percentage points respectively. Additionally, the company reported over 10 million yuan in stock/equity investment income in Q1 2025, an increase of nearly 40 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 845 million yuan and 1.092 billion yuan respectively. The target price is maintained at 9.0 yuan, with an outperform rating in the industry. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.7x for 2025 and 9.1x for 2026, while the target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.5x for 2025 and 9.7x for 2026, indicating an upside potential of 6.4% [4]