上海银行(601229)：净息差稳住 拨贷比、分红比率再提升

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Bank reported steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 4.79% and net profit growth of 4.50% for 2024, and Q1 2025 revenue and net profit rising by 3.85% and 2.30% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 increased by 4.79% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 4.50%, consistent with previous performance reports [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 3.85% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 2.30% [2] - Net interest income and non-interest income both saw year-on-year growth, attributed to stable net interest margins and realized investment gains [2] - Q1 2025 net interest income grew by 4.65% year-on-year, while non-interest income increased by 2.60% [2] Deposit Growth - Corporate and personal deposits maintained high growth rates despite significant declines in interest rates, linked to the company's focus on transaction banking and strengthening its pension finance advantages [2] - In Q1 2025, RMB corporate deposits grew by 5.0% year-on-year with an interest rate of 1.51%, down 31 basis points; personal deposits increased by 5.5% with an interest rate of 1.90%, down 32 basis points [2] Loan Quality and Coverage - The proportion of special mention loans decreased, while both provision coverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio increased [3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18% compared to the end of the previous year, with the proportion of special mention loans declining by 1 basis point to 2.05% [3] - Provision coverage ratio improved by 1.43 percentage points to 271.24%, and the loan-to-deposit ratio increased by 2 basis points to 3.20% [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company benefits from significantly reduced funding costs and stable net interest margins, reflecting its strengths in transaction banking and pension finance [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 541, 555, and 570 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.02%, 2.74%, and 2.63% respectively; net profit forecasts are 244, 249, and 256 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.59%, 2.18%, and 2.51% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.66, 1.70, and 1.74 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.29, 6.15, and 6.00, and price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.59, 0.56, and 0.52 [3]