中国神华(601088)：煤炭量价齐跌致业绩下降 静待需求改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to decreased coal sales and lower electricity generation, reflecting challenging market conditions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year - Cash flow from operating activities was 20.538 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.9% year-on-year - Total assets reached 672.307 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% from the end of the previous year [1][6]. Coal Business - Coal production was 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons (down 4.7%) and purchased coal sales at 20.8 million tons (down 40.4%) - Average coal sales price was 506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The coal segment's gross profit was 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8%, with a gross margin of 30.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year - The electricity segment's gross profit was 3.21 billion yuan, down 21.2%, with a gross margin of 15.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Electricity Business - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year - Average electricity selling price was 386 yuan/MWh, down 5.6% year-on-year [3][4]. Transportation Segment - Railway transportation volume was 72.5 billion ton-km, down 11.6% year-on-year - Port loading volume was 49.7 million tons, down 8.8% year-on-year - Overall profitability in the transportation segment was pressured due to declining volumes [4]. Chemical Business - Polyethylene sales were 92.0 thousand tons, up 2.8% year-on-year - Gross profit for the chemical segment was 117 million yuan, an increase of 23.2%, with a gross margin of 7.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Quality - Cash flow from operating activities weakened, but the company maintained a high dividend commitment - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 155.401 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% from the beginning of the year [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 54.335 billion yuan, 55.976 billion yuan, and 56.059 billion yuan respectively - The company maintains a strong performance outlook due to integrated operations in coal, electricity, and transportation, with a recommendation to "buy" [7].