中国神华(601088)：盈利短期承压 高红利价值延续

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, down 21.07% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, down 17.96% year-on-year, primarily due to a 26.6% year-on-year drop in long-term contract prices, impacting revenue by approximately 5.4 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's coal business experienced a decline in both volume and price due to reduced demand from thermal power generation, with coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants decreasing by 5.6% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively [2] - In Q1 2025, the company produced 83 million tons of commodity coal, down 1.1% year-on-year, and sold 99 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with an average price of 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The company's power generation volume decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to 50.42 billion kWh, and sales volume also fell by 10.7% year-on-year to 47.47 billion kWh, but the selling price remained relatively stable, only decreasing by 1.3 cents per kWh [3] Group 2: Business Segments - Other business segments, including railways, ports, shipping, and coal chemical industries, also saw revenue declines, with respective revenues of 10.526 billion, 1.576 billion, 716 million, and 472 million yuan, down 10.5%, 7.2%, 41.0%, and 2.3% year-on-year [3] - Despite the revenue decline, the gross margins for railway and coal chemical segments improved by 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating potential resilience in these areas as coal demand recovers [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 50.1 billion, 50 billion, and 50.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.4%, 11.2%, and 11.3% from previous estimates [4] - The company maintains a high historical dividend payout ratio, and the importance of dividend returns in market expectations has increased, leading to a stable valuation [4] - Using the DDM valuation method, the target price for A-shares is set at 45.5 yuan, down from 46.1 yuan, while the target price for H-shares is set at 40.0 HKD, up from 37.9 HKD [4]