中国神华(601088)：业绩略低预期 看好远期发展

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q1 2025, with A-share net profit at 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - A-share net profit was 11.9 billion yuan (EPS 0.60 yuan), with a year-on-year decline of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.1% [1] - H-share net profit was 13.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [1] - The decline in profits was attributed to falling prices and volumes in coal and electricity businesses, as well as weaker coal demand affecting transportation [1] - The gross profit margins for coal, electricity, railway, port, shipping, and chemical segments were 15.5 billion, 3.2 billion, 4.2 billion, 747 million, 60 million, and 117 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23%, 21%, 6%, 9.5%, 56%, and an increase of 23% for shipping [1] Production and Sales - Coal production and sales volumes decreased, with production at 82.5 million tons and sales at 78.5 million tons, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1.1% and 4.7% respectively [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 8.4% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Electricity sales volume decreased by 11% to 47.47 billion kWh, with an average selling price of 386 yuan per MWh, down 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 20.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26% [1] Development Trends - The company is advancing construction projects, including the New Street Taige Temple mining area and the Huanghua Port Phase V project, while planning new asset injection actions [2] - The company is expected to strengthen its coal business advantages and enhance integrated industry chain collaboration [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with A-share P/E ratios at 14.7 and 14.6 times, and H-share P/E ratios at 10.2 and 10.1 times [3] - The target price for A/H shares remains unchanged, with implied upside potential of 8.6% for A-shares and 16.9% for H-shares [3]