中国神华(601088)：煤电量价齐跌致业绩回落 高分红中长期价值凸显

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance has declined due to falling coal prices and electricity sales, but its high dividend yield and stable earnings present long-term investment value, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year and 5.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The adjusted net profit was 11.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.9% [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's coal production was 8.25 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Coal sales volume was 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, with self-produced coal sales at 7.85 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Electricity Business Performance - The company's electricity generation in Q1 2025 was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year [2] - Electricity sales volume was 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of electricity was 0.4393 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Dividends - The company has three major coal mines under construction, expected to enhance production capacity by 2028 [4] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected to be 76.53%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from 2023, with a current dividend yield of 5.8% [4] - The company plans to increase the minimum cash dividend payout ratio to 65% for 2025-2027 and consider increasing the frequency of dividends [4]