NMHD(SH:600863) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:35Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but an increase in net profit, primarily affected by unexpected carbon emission expenses [1] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue was 22.294 billion yuan, down 1.03% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.325 billion yuan, up 15.98% year-on-year, but below the expected 2.512 billion yuan due to additional carbon emission costs of 276 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 9.33% to 5.052 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 16.25% to 744 million yuan, also below the expected range of 871-977 million yuan [1] Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 yuan (before tax) for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.45% [1] - The total dividend payout accounted for 61.75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders and 71.9% of the distributable profits, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% [1] Electricity Pricing - In 2024, the company's on-grid electricity volume decreased by 3.51% to 54.297 billion kWh, mainly due to a 7.02% drop in electricity volume sent to the North China grid [2] - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 was 336.46 yuan/MWh, down 2.17% year-on-year, with a smaller decline compared to 6.23% in 2023 [2] - In Q1 2025, the average on-grid electricity price increased by 3.57% to 363.11 yuan/MWh, driven by increased peak-shaving revenue and a decrease in on-grid electricity volume [2] Coal Sector Performance - In 2024, the coal segment saw both volume and price increases, with external sales volume rising by 16.89% to 7.2803 million tons, despite a downward trend in market coal prices [3] - The external sales price (excluding tax) was 402.21 yuan/ton, up 0.18% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, external sales volume increased by 0.39% to 1.5608 million tons, but the external sales price dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 yuan/ton due to a decline in raw coal calorific value [3] Price Target and Rating - The target price is set at 5.01 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Adjustments were made to the 2025-26 on-grid electricity volume and external coal prices, leading to a downward revision of net profit expectations for those years by 19% and 21% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for 2027 is projected to be 2.739 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.36/0.39/0.42 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]