Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily due to slower growth in the oil and gas production system components business, but anticipates potential market opportunities from upcoming projects [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86 million yuan, down 39.90% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 271 million yuan, a decline of 5.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 21 million yuan, down 25.40% year-on-year [1]. - The annual report's performance was below expectations, with a forecasted net profit of 104 million yuan [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.80%, a decrease of 3.18 percentage points, attributed to delays in downstream oil and gas projects and a decline in deep-sea product sales [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 18.96%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points but an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. - The total expense ratio for 2024 was 9.47%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher management expenses due to the acquisition of a Singapore subsidiary [2]. Market Outlook and Opportunities - The offshore oil and gas exploration and development sector remains robust, with deep-sea product orders expected to rebound as international oil prices remain high [2]. - According to Clarkson's forecast, global capital expenditure for offshore oil and gas projects is expected to exceed 100 billion dollars in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20% [2]. - The company is a key supplier of specialized components in the deep-sea equipment sector for major players like TechnipFMC, SLB, and Baker Hughes, positioning it to benefit from the structural recovery in deep-sea markets [2]. Investment Projects and Future Growth - The company has been advancing its multi-directional forging project for over a decade, targeting the domestic replacement of high-end large valves, with leading global forging technology [3]. - The project is on schedule, having completed critical phases such as equipment installation and main equipment debugging, indicating a potential for substantial returns from high capital expenditures [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 14% and 2% respectively, estimating net profits of 150 million yuan and 245 million yuan [4]. - The estimated net profit for 2027 is projected to be 296 million yuan [4]. - The company is assigned a target price of 21.58 yuan for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 28 times, reflecting a premium due to its leading technology in investment projects [4].
迪威尔(688377):新项目按期推进 深海产品景气上行