海容冷链(603187)：收入符合预期 经营稳中向好

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 driven by overseas market expansion and operational adjustments [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, down 14.4% [1][3]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 80 million yuan, up 42.6% [1][3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but net profit decreased by 9.2% to 100 million yuan [1][2]. Product Performance - Revenue breakdown for 2024 showed frozen/cooling/supermarket/intelligent cabinets generated 1.51 billion, 720 million, 280 million, and 170 million yuan respectively, with declines in frozen cabinets by 27.7% and growth in cooling cabinets by 26.0% [2][3]. - The weak performance of frozen cabinets was attributed to overall insufficient downstream demand [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was 12.5%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 27.8%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross and net profit margins were 25.4% and 11.4% respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.1 and 2.2 percentage points [3]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates further improvement in operations for 2025, particularly in the Indonesian market, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth due to the lifting of import quotas [4]. - The establishment of overseas production bases is projected to mitigate tariff uncertainties and enhance international customer acquisition [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with an adjusted EPS forecast of 0.98 yuan for 2025 and 1.09 yuan for 2026, alongside a new forecast of 1.22 yuan for 2027 [4]. - The target price is maintained at 13.2 yuan, corresponding to a 13x PE for 2025, with a "strong buy" rating [4].