物产环能(603071)：业绩略有承压 提高分红重视投资回报

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a significant decline in net profit, primarily due to falling coal prices impacting its core coal trading business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 739 million yuan, a decrease of 30.25% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.949 billion yuan and net profit of 155 million yuan, representing declines of 4.91% and 35.44% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Coal Trading Business - The coal trading business, which contributes over 90% of the company's revenue, generated 41.487 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.95% year-on-year [2]. - Coal sales volume reached 59.5837 million tons in 2024, up 7.39% year-on-year, but revenue was negatively impacted by a decrease in coal prices, resulting in a gross profit of 1.074 billion yuan, down 446 million yuan from 2023 [2]. - The gross profit margin for coal trading was 2.59%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Thermal Power and New Energy Business - The thermal power generation business reported revenue of 3.135 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase [3]. - The gross profit margin for the thermal power business improved to 24.68%, up 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The new energy business generated revenue of 56 million yuan, a decrease of 7.30% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin for this segment increased significantly by 19.81 percentage points [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute at least 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [4]. - In 2024, the dividend payout ratio was 45.32%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.64% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.47 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan, and 4.71 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -0.03%, +2.00%, and +3.32%, respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the stock as of April 25, 2025, are estimated to be 9.73, 8.82, and 8.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].