C&S(SZ:002511) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:43Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to intensified competition, fluctuations in raw material prices, and impairment provisions [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.15 billion, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.18 million, down 76.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.07 billion, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 66.76 million, down 30.1% [1] - Quarterly revenue for 2024 showed declines of 10.5%, 17.1%, 9.5%, and 26.3% respectively, with Q1 net profit increasing by 6.7% before incurring losses in Q2 and Q3 [1] Development Trends - The company faces short-term operational pressure due to intensified competition, but Q1 2025 revenue returned to positive growth, increasing by 12.1% to 2.07 billion [2] - In 2024, revenue from household paper and personal care products was 8.04 billion and 110 million respectively, with declines of 16.8% and 21.8% [2] - Traditional and non-traditional channel revenues in 2024 were 3.26 billion and 4.89 billion respectively, down 26.1% and 9.3%, with e-commerce channels expected to perform relatively well [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 30.7% and 30.8%, down 2.5 and 3.7 percentage points respectively, primarily due to competitive pressures and high raw material prices [3] - In Q1 2025, the average price of imported hardwood pulp decreased by 8%, and if prices stabilize at low levels, gross margins may improve [3] - The net profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 0.9% and 3.2%, reflecting declines of 2.5 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] Long-term Growth Outlook - The company is viewed positively as a leading player in the domestic household paper market, with potential for long-term growth through strengthening core product advantages and expanding into personal care categories [3] - The company is enhancing its offline distribution network and improving channel efficiency, while also accelerating expansion into new retail and e-commerce platforms [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to intense industry competition and ongoing recovery, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 31% to 260 million, with a new forecast for 2026 at 320 million [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 33 and 27 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 8 yuan indicating a 20% upside potential [4]