好想你(002582)：净利润大幅改善 成本红利持续释放

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue for 2024 but showed significant improvement in net profit for Q1 2025, indicating a potential recovery in profitability driven by cost management and product optimization [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 72 million yuan compared to a loss of 52 million yuan in 2023 [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 492 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year, with a net loss of 11 million yuan [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 413 million yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 216% to 40 million yuan [1] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 22.62% and 33.97%, respectively, with a recovery in profitability due to the depletion of high-cost raw materials [2] - Selling expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points in 2024 and by 1 percentage point in Q1 2025, while management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point in 2024 and by 0.1 percentage points in Q1 2025, indicating effective cost control [2] - Net profit margin improved significantly in Q1 2025 to 9.62%, up from a loss margin of 4.53% in 2024 [2] Product and Channel Strategy - Revenue from red date products, health preservation products, and other categories for 2024 was 1.22 billion, 69 million, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with a notable decline in health preservation products due to reduced maintenance of old products [3] - Offline channel revenue increased by 3% to 1.14 billion yuan, driven by new retail channels, while e-commerce revenue decreased by 16% to 475 million yuan due to channel relocation [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and developing differentiated, high-tech red date products [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability due to lower raw material costs and the expiration of certain depreciation expenses [4] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.02, 0.17, and 0.27 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 502, 70, and 44 times [4]