洽洽食品(002557)：25Q1经营触底 期待盈利修复

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, revenue dropped to 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, and net profit fell to 80 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year due to factors such as pre-holiday inventory buildup, weak market demand, intensified industry competition, and fluctuations in raw material prices [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other businesses reached 4.38 billion yuan (+2.6%), 1.92 billion yuan (+9.7%), and 830 million yuan (+5.6%) respectively. The overall performance of the seed category remained stable, with contributions from key products [2]. - The company achieved revenue of 2.27 billion yuan (+3.9%) in the southern region, 2.12 billion yuan (+9.5%) in the eastern region, and 1.34 billion yuan (-3.3%) in the northern region for 2024. E-commerce and international markets also showed growth, with revenue from e-commerce reaching 780 million yuan (+8.9%) and international markets at 50 million yuan (-20.6%) [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.8%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 19.5%, a decrease of 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to raw material cost pressures [3]. - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 10.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 was 10.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. The management expense ratio for 2024 was 4.3%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 4.6% in Q1 2025, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its distribution channels, particularly in underdeveloped markets, and exploring partnerships with core cities. It is also enhancing its upstream raw material control and expects a decrease in raw material prices in the new procurement season [4]. - The company is implementing various strategies to address short-term pressures, including product promotions and expanding its product range, which is expected to help navigate through the operational cycle [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 720 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 920 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.42 yuan, 1.65 yuan, and 1.81 yuan. The company is expected to accelerate its operations as consumer demand recovers [4].