洽洽食品(002557)：短期业绩承压 或逐步改善

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a revenue increase of 4.8% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.13 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 5.8% to 850 million yuan, indicating stable growth despite challenges in Q1 2025 due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 67.9% to 77.24 million yuan [1]. - The company's core products, sunflower seeds and nuts, achieved revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 2.6% and 9.7% [1]. Market Segmentation - Revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while direct sales (including snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) surged by 38.3% to 1.46 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The Eastern region, e-commerce, and overseas markets outperformed the overall company growth, with revenues of 2.12 billion yuan, 780 million yuan, and 570 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 8.9%, and 10.3% [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.8%, with a decline to 19.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +2.0 and -11.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The gross margins for sunflower seeds and nuts in 2024 were 29.7% and 27.2%, with year-on-year changes of +4.5 and -4.4 percentage points [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 11.9%, decreasing to 4.9% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of +0.1 and -8.3 percentage points respectively [4]. - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance post-Q1 2025, with projected net profits of 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [4].