伟星新材(002372)：1Q25业绩存有压力 经营质量保持稳健

Group 1: Company Performance - Company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 895 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million, down 26% year-on-year, with non-recurring net profit also down 19% to 114 million, falling short of expectations due to pressure in the retail segment [1] - Revenue pressure is evident with a year-on-year decline of 10% in Q1 2025, worsening from a 5% decline in Q4 2024, attributed to significant market demand pressure and challenges in the retail segment [1] - Gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 40.5%, leading to a gross profit decline of 12.5% to 352 million [1] - Operating expenses decreased, but interest income reduction led to an increase in expense ratio, with sales expenses down 11% year-on-year, and management/R&D expenses down 5% and 10% respectively, while financial interest income decreased by 13.12 million, resulting in a year-on-year increase in expense ratio by 1.6 percentage points to 25% [1] - Investment income decreased significantly, with Q1 2025 showing a loss of 5.56 million compared to a gain of 28.4 million in the same period last year, leading to a 26% year-on-year decline in operating profit to 136 million [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Financial Health - Cash flow remains strong, with cash flow from operations increasing by 2.61 million year-on-year to 8.5 million, and cash conversion ratio improving by 15 percentage points to 133% [1] - Company maintains a healthy financial position with a net cash status and a low debt-to-asset ratio of only 19% [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The company is expected to face continued demand pressure in 2025, particularly in the home decoration pipeline, with price competition impacting the high gross margin model [2] - Despite short-term disturbances from expenses, investment income, and impairments, the company is positioned to adapt to the future stock building era through enhanced service capabilities and new business developments, maintaining stable core profits [2] - As a high-dividend company, it is expected to continue providing quality returns to the market [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to 20x and 18x P/E for 2025 and 2026 respectively; the company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 14, implying a 14% upside potential based on 23x and 21x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]