最新健康研究：气候变化或加重抗微生物药物耐药性全球负担

Core Viewpoint - The research indicates that current climate change pathways and the failure to achieve sustainable development strategies may lead to an increased global burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by 2050, with a projected rise of up to 2.4% in AMR rates globally [1][3]. Group 1: Research Findings - In 2021, antimicrobial resistance caused approximately 1.14 million deaths globally, with the most severe impact on middle- and low-income countries. This number is expected to rise to nearly 2 million deaths by 2050 [3]. - The study analyzed 45,502 records of 32 million isolates from six key resistant bacterial pathogens collected from 1999 to 2022 across 101 countries, using predictive models to assess the impact of socioeconomic and climate factors on AMR trends [3][5]. - Under the worst-case climate change scenario, with a global temperature increase of 4-5°C by the end of the century, AMR could increase by 2.4% by 2050 compared to a low-emission scenario. The increase is projected to be 0.9% in high-income countries, 4.1% in middle- and low-income countries, and 3.3% in low-income countries [3][5]. Group 2: Sustainable Development Actions - Sustainable development actions, such as reducing out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, expanding vaccination coverage, increasing health investments, and ensuring universal access to water, sanitation, and hygiene services, could reduce future AMR prevalence by 5.1% compared to baseline levels. This effect is significantly greater than the 2.1% reduction expected from merely decreasing antibiotic use [5]. - The research highlights limitations in establishing causal relationships due to the ecological modeling methods used and the quality of AMR monitoring data. Additionally, certain factors contributing to AMR, such as education, antibiotic use in food production, and animal husbandry practices, were not fully considered and require further investigation [5].