News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is currently experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with recent events such as the explosion at Iran's Abbas port potentially impacting future supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - As of April 24, domestic methanol operating rates are at 71.04%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port, which handles over 55% of Iran's non-oil cargo, raises concerns about its impact on methanol shipments, although most other ports are operating normally [1]. - China's methanol port inventory stands at 463,200 tons, down by 122,400 tons week-on-week, while production enterprise inventory is at 309,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,600 tons [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, but demand indicators show weakness, particularly in traditional sectors like BDO, which are experiencing declining production [2]. - The upcoming May Day holiday is contributing to poor downstream stocking sentiment, with low inventory levels reported [2]. - Despite the explosion in Iran, the government has acted quickly to mitigate the situation, with firefighting efforts reportedly 80% complete by April 27, suggesting minimal short-term impact on methanol supply [2]. Price Outlook - Port and enterprise inventories continue to decline, supporting near-term prices, but the overall industry faces risks from potential supply increases and weakening demand [3]. - Current industry profits are concentrated in the methanol sector, but there is an expectation that profits will gradually shift downstream, putting pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The methanol market is anticipated to face further downward pressure on prices due to a seasonal decline in demand, with recommendations to adopt a short position on high prices [3].
需求端较疲软 后续甲醇仍有进一步回落的压力
Jin Tou Wang·2025-04-29 08:05