林毅夫：应对新挑战，人才、国内大市场、产业链配套齐全是中国经济的优势

Core Viewpoint - Lin Yifu emphasizes that China's economic advantages lie in talent, a large domestic market, and a complete industrial chain, which are crucial for addressing new challenges in the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - Lin Yifu discusses the recurring "China collapse theory," attributing it to the misallocation of resources and corruption stemming from government interventions in developing countries post-World War II [1][2]. - He argues that the mainstream economic theory's prescription of marketization and privatization has led to stagnation and crises in many countries, while China's gradual dual-track reform has facilitated stable and rapid growth [2][3]. - Despite challenges such as an aging population and trade tensions with the U.S., China is projected to maintain a growth rate of 5% to 6% until 2035, leveraging its advantages [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections - If growth expectations are met, by 2049, China's per capita GDP could reach half of that of the U.S., and its economic size could be twice that of the U.S., altering the dynamics of U.S.-China relations [4]. - Lin Yifu highlights that China's continued development will not only support its modernization goals but also contribute to global stability [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Miracle - From 1978 to 1995, China experienced an average growth rate of 9.7%, and from 1995 to 2024, an average of 8.3%, making it the fastest-growing economy without systemic financial crises [6][7]. - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to be $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold, showcasing its significant impact on the East Asian economy and global recovery [6][7]. - The key to China's sustained growth lies in its ability to enhance productivity and leverage its latecomer advantage through technology absorption and innovation [7].