博时基金：关税反复背景下海外金融资产或仍呈较大波动

Macroeconomic Overview - The preliminary Markit PMI for April in the US indicates a slowdown in economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 51.2%, below the expected 52.0% and previous 53.5% [1] - The preliminary services PMI for April is 51.4%, lower than the expected 52.6% and previous 54.4% [1] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for April is 50.7%, exceeding the expected 49.0% and previous 50.2% [1] - Durable goods orders in March saw a significant month-on-month increase of 9.2%, far surpassing the expected 2% and previous 0.9% [1] - Excluding defense capital goods orders, durable goods orders increased only by 0.1% [1] - New home sales in March rose by 7.4%, significantly above the expected 1.3% and previous 3.1%, totaling 724,000 units [1] - Existing home sales, however, fell by 5.9% year-on-year, below the expected -2.6% and previous 4.4%, with a total of 4.02 million units [1] Major Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index increased by 1.26% over the week [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index surged by 6.43% during the same period [2][3] - The S&P 500 Index rose by 4.59%, with 10 out of 11 sectors showing gains, led by Information Technology at 7.93% [2][3] Market Sentiment and Trends - The US stock market experienced a rebound last week, with a decline in gold prices [2] - President Trump indicated he would not dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, and there are signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [2] - The VIX fear index temporarily fell to 25, reflecting reduced market anxiety [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with a 10% probability of a cut in May and an expected 3.50 cuts in 2025 [2]