P&G-Even This Elite Dividend King Stock Is Feeling the Effects of Tariff Turmoil. Is It a Buy Anyway?

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) has a strong reputation for consistent results and dividend growth, having raised its dividend for 69 consecutive years, placing it among the elite "Dividend Kings" [1] - Following the release of its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, P&G's stock fell by 3.7%, prompting a review of whether this decline is justified or presents a buying opportunity [2] Financial Performance - P&G's second-quarter fiscal 2025 guidance included expectations for full-year sales growth of 2% to 4%, diluted EPS growth of 10% to 12%, core EPS growth of 5% to 7%, $10 billion in dividend payments, and$ 6 billion to $7 billion in stock buybacks [4] - The latest quarterly results showed a 1% decline in volumes, a 1% increase in price, and a 2% overall decline in net sales, leading to a downward revision in EPS guidance to 6% to 8% for diluted EPS and 2% to 4% for core EPS [5] Consumer Demand and Market Conditions - Consumer demand is under pressure due to various economic factors, including market volatility, job market uncertainty, and rising mortgage rates, leading to decreased retail traffic [7] - P&G's management noted a decline in value consumption in both the U.S. and Europe, with tariffs expected to impact the business by$ 1 billion to $1.5 billion annually, approximately 3% of the cost of goods sold [8] Competitive Positioning - P&G is better positioned than its competitors to handle tariff pressures due to superior operating margins and a diverse brand portfolio, which helps retain customers even during spending pullbacks [10] - The company continues to innovate with new products across its brands, such as the launch of OxyBoost Power Pods and Gain Odor Defense, allowing it to maintain customer loyalty [11][12] Dividend and Capital Return - Despite the challenges, P&G's dividend remains secure, with a yield of 2.6% and plans to return$ 6 billion to $7 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025, reflecting the strength of its capital return program [14] - The stock is currently trading just 3.3% above its 52-week low, resulting in a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.6, which is close to its 10-year median P/E of 25.7, presenting a potentially better value for investors [15] Long-term Outlook - While P&G's stock may face near-term pressure due to tariff uncertainties, the long-term investment thesis remains intact, making it a solid option for risk-averse investors seeking reliable passive income [16][17]