Earnings Preview: TopBuild (BLD) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in TopBuild's earnings due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - TopBuild is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.43 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 7.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $1.24 billion, which is a 3% decline from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.96% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. - The current Earnings ESP for TopBuild is -1.03%, suggesting that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate [11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - However, TopBuild currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, TopBuild exceeded the expected earnings of $5.08 per share by delivering $5.13, resulting in a surprise of +0.98% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - TopBuild does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, but other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of its earnings release [16].