Aris Water Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) Reports Next Week: What Awaits?

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates flat earnings for Aris Water Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) compared to the previous year, with expected higher revenues impacting stock price based on actual results versus estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.23 per share, unchanged from the year-ago quarter, with revenues projected at $116.57 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase year-over-year [3]. - A positive stock movement is likely if actual earnings exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 11.63% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.94%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [11][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [8]. - Aris Water Solutions currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict a consensus EPS beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Aris Water Solutions was expected to post earnings of $0.27 per share but only achieved $0.17, resulting in a surprise of -37.04% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Industry Comparison - In contrast, Casella (CWST), another player in the waste removal services industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.11 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year increase of 1,200%, with revenues projected at $412.43 million, up 20.9% [17]. - Casella's EPS estimate has been revised up by 0.6% in the last 30 days, and it has a positive Earnings ESP of 38.44%, combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, indicating a high likelihood of beating consensus estimates [18].