Sirius XM to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Sirius XM (SIRI) is expected to report a decline in revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with strategic adjustments impacting subscriber additions and overall performance [2][4]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SIRI's first-quarter 2025 revenues is $2.08 billion, reflecting a 3.66% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. - Streaming engagement is anticipated to support revenues, driven by a new app launch and the integration of SiriusXM services in Tesla and Rivian vehicles, which reached over two million by year-end [5]. Earnings Performance - The consensus estimate for earnings remains at 70 cents per share, indicating no year-over-year change [2]. - SIRI has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 41.41% [3]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has implemented strategic changes such as "click-to-cancel," shortened introductory offers, and reduced marketing to high-churn audiences, which may have negatively impacted subscriber growth in the first quarter [4]. - Advertising revenues are expected to grow moderately due to new content launches, although overall gains may be softer compared to the previous holiday season [6]. Cost Management - The bottom line is expected to benefit from the absence of one-time expenses that affected 2024 results, despite a temporary increase in capital expenditures related to satellite payments [7][8]. - Management has highlighted significant reductions in operating and capital expenditures starting in 2025, driven by the launch of SXM-9 [8]. Earnings Outlook - According to the Zacks model, SIRI has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a potential for an earnings beat [9].