Is NBIS Stock Worth Investing After a 24% Drop in the Past 3 Months?

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) shares have declined by 24.2% over the past three months, reflecting both broader market volatility and company-specific challenges [1][2] Market Context - Broader market volatility has been influenced by tariff and trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China, despite a temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump [1] - The stock has underperformed compared to the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Internet Software Services industry, which declined by 12.9% and 3.7%, respectively [4] Company Performance - Nebius has faced operating losses, divestment of Yandex, and pricing pressure from larger competitors, leading to cautious investor sentiment [2] - The stock is currently trading 53% below its 52-week high, closing at $24.11, indicating a distressed position [5] - The company's net loss widened to $136.6 million in Q4 2024, compared to a loss of $88.3 million in the same quarter the previous year [8] Competitive Landscape - Nebius is a new entrant in the AI cloud infrastructure market, competing against established players like Amazon and Microsoft, which dominate over half of the market [7] - Microsoft's exclusive partnership with OpenAI provides Azure cloud with priority access to leading AI models, intensifying pricing pressure on Nebius [7] Operational Challenges - Growth prospects for Nebius are muted due to a challenging global macroeconomic environment and increasing lead times as customers become more selective [6] - Extended deal cycles create uncertainty in revenue flow and can lead to customer churn, impacting overall business stability [10][11] Valuation and Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward for NBIS, and the stock is trading below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [12][13] - In terms of Price/Book ratio, NBIS shares are trading at 1.74X, lower than the industry average of 3.65, suggesting more risk than opportunity [14] Conclusion - Nebius faces significant competition in the AI infrastructure space and must focus on building customer trust and a partner ecosystem to differentiate itself [17]