逆市豪赌1800万美元！神秘交易员押注美联储年内不降息

Core Viewpoint - A significant options trader has placed an $18 million bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year, contrasting with broader market expectations for rate cuts in July and potentially two more times later in the year [1] Group 1: Options Market Activity - A major position has accumulated in options contracts betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain or raise rates before 2025, with approximately 180,000 contracts now held, representing about 75% of the total open interest [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a surge in open contracts this week, indicating increased risk exposure linked to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [1] - Recent trading activity has focused on SOFR options with a strike price of 95.6875, particularly due to new trades in put options aimed at maintaining current interest rates over the next year [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Investor sentiment is mixed as many on Wall Street are betting that tariffs imposed by Trump could slow the economy, prompting the Fed to lower rates, while recent trades have diminished this expectation [4] - A Morgan Stanley client survey indicated a slight increase in both long and short positions in the Treasury market following a sell-off triggered by tariff announcements [4] - CFTC data shows asset managers have increased net long positions in 10-year Treasury futures by approximately 370,000 contracts, while hedge funds have also raised their net long positions by about 170,000 contracts [9]