美国3月商品贸易逆差扩大 企业“抢进口”或拖累经济增长

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in March increased by 9.6% month-over-month, reaching $162 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [1][3]. Import Analysis - In March, U.S. imports rose by 5% to $342.7 billion, primarily driven by consumer goods such as phones, computers, pharmaceuticals, and clothing [3]. - The surge in imports may be attributed to companies accelerating imports ahead of large-scale tariff policies in the U.S. [3]. - Non-monetary gold imports also contributed to the overall increase in imports, marking the fourth consecutive month of record-high import levels [3]. - Year-over-year, U.S. imports in March increased by 31%, with consumer goods imports rising by 27.5% [3]. Export Analysis - U.S. exports of manufactured goods grew by 1.2% in March, but analysts warn that reciprocal tariff measures from other countries could exert downward pressure on exports [4]. - Retail inventories decreased by 0.1%, while wholesale inventories saw a slight increase of 0.5% [4]. Economic Impact - The significant trade deficit increase may negatively impact the upcoming first-quarter GDP data, with some analysts predicting a contraction of 1.1% [3]. - As companies rush to import goods to avoid tariffs, demand for foreign products may be suppressed in the coming months, as indicated by a decrease in the number of ships scheduled to arrive in the U.S. in May [4].