研判金属价格走向 安泰科召开2025年（第十六届）有色金属市场报告会

Core Insights - The overall production of the non-ferrous metal industry is maintaining steady growth, with domestic consumption increasing moderately and investment and trade remaining active [1] - The establishment of the "Jintai Non-Ferrous Metal Research Center" aims to explore future development opportunities and promote the transformation and upgrading of the non-ferrous metal industry [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The prices of basic metals such as aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and tin have been fluctuating at high levels since 2024, while nickel, cobalt, lithium, and silicon have entered a downturn after previous gains [1] - The market for metals like indium, germanium, gallium, selenium, tellurium, antimony, and bismuth has seen price increases due to trade policy impacts, with some individual varieties like antimony and germanium exceeding expected price increases [1] Group 2: Copper Market Outlook - Antai expects a phase of supply shortage in the copper market by 2025, which will disrupt China's refined copper production, while global trade uncertainties will negatively impact the copper supply chain [2] - Despite these challenges, the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact, with the average price in 2025 expected to be higher than in 2024 [2] Group 3: Aluminum and Tin Price Projections - For aluminum, Antai predicts that long-term supply constraints will support prices, but a decrease in exports and potential weakening domestic demand may limit price increases, leading to a trend of high prices followed by lower prices [2] - Tin prices are expected to remain supported by a de-inventorying market, with a slight growth in demand projected despite potential impacts from tariff wars [2] Group 4: Precious Metals and Lithium Forecast - Antai forecasts that international gold prices will continue to show a trend of oscillating upward, potentially reaching between $4,000 and $4,100 per ounce [3] - For silver, stable but weak growth in global supply is anticipated, while demand driven by the photovoltaic industry may lead to a continued supply shortage, resulting in high price fluctuations [3] - In the lithium market, a bottom support for prices is gradually emerging, with expectations for a wide oscillation in prices between 60,000 and 90,000 yuan per ton by 2025 [3]