国内总供应量较为充足 预计糖价震荡

Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices declined, with the main September contract closing at 5936 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos data, Nigeria's raw sugar imports for the 2025-26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 12% compared to the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year will reach 45.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2] - As of April 30, over 30 sugar enterprises in Yunnan have commenced sugarcane processing, exceeding half of the total number of sugar factories that opened this season, indicating that the province has entered the processing phase [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that while Brazil experienced less rainfall in the first quarter, the high sugar-alcohol price ratio is expected to maintain a high sugar production ratio, leading to uncertainty in production levels. The focus is shifting towards consumption and imports, with good domestic sugar sales and a significant reduction in imported sugar supply, creating bullish factors on both supply and demand sides. However, the trend for US sugar remains downward, and domestic supply is ample, leading to expectations of price fluctuations with a cautious trading approach [3] - Guoxin Futures reported a decline in raw sugar futures, with market attention on the May raw sugar contract expiration. The May contract fell by 0.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.2%. Weak demand in the spot market may lead to a large delivery of the May contract, potentially reaching about 2 million tons. CONAB indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach record highs due to favorable market conditions, despite a year-on-year decline in sugarcane production. Short-term focus is on weather conditions in major production areas, with heavy rains in Guangxi alleviating drought conditions but raising concerns about potential flooding. A short-term trading strategy is recommended [3]