年内第二次搁浅，本轮成品油价不作调整

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced their second suspension of the year, with no adjustments made to gasoline and diesel prices as of April 30, 2025, due to insufficient changes in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the current pricing mechanism will keep gasoline and diesel prices unchanged, effective from midnight on April 30, 2025 [1]. - This marks the ninth price adjustment cycle of 2025, resulting in a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two suspensions" for refined oil prices [1]. - According to Zhaochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.66% as of April 29, indicating a potential increase of 30 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, but the adjustment did not meet the necessary condition of a 50 yuan/ton change [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts from Jinlianchuang noted that initial support for oil prices came from OPEC's announcement of compensatory production cuts, but tensions among OPEC members regarding production quotas and proposals to increase output in June have pressured prices [3]. - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, contributing to a negative outlook for global economic growth and fuel demand [3]. - As of April 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures closed at $60.33 per barrel, down 0.51%, while Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.38 per barrel, down 0.11% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, there is a significant probability of a price decrease in the next round of refined oil price adjustments due to global economic recession risks and a lack of optimism regarding demand [5]. - Analysts predict that the next pricing cycle may see a negative change rate of approximately -3%, potentially leading to a decrease of around 140 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [5]. - The next price adjustment window is expected to open on May 19, 2025, at 24:00 [5].