二季度蛋鸡苗价格或继续下探

Core Viewpoint - The poultry farming industry is experiencing a cautious sentiment regarding restocking due to declining profitability, leading to a decrease in demand for chick prices, which initially rose but are now expected to fall further [1][3][8]. Group 1: Chick Price Trends - In the first quarter, the average price of layer chicks was 4.33 yuan per chick, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.31% and a year-on-year increase of 45.51% [1]. - January saw the highest price in nearly three years at 4.51 yuan per chick, but prices began to decline due to reduced demand from cautious farming units [1][3]. - As of the end of April, the average price of layer chicks was 4.13 yuan per chick, with a maximum decline of 8.43% during the period [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Demand - The gross profit per kilogram of eggs in the first quarter was 0.39 yuan, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 72.92% [3]. - In January, the average gross profit per kilogram of eggs was approximately 1.13 yuan, but this dropped to 0.00 yuan and 0.01 yuan in February and March, respectively, leading to a cautious restocking sentiment among farmers [3]. - By April 24, the average gross profit per kilogram of eggs was only 0.06 yuan, indicating continued low profitability and further reduction in chick demand [3]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - In May, the demand for eggs is expected to remain relatively high, providing support for egg prices, but June may see a seasonal decline in demand, potentially leading to oversupply and downward pressure on prices [5][8]. - The overall trend for egg prices from May to June is anticipated to be an initial increase followed by a decrease, with feed costs remaining stable and profitability fluctuating [5][8]. - The chick hatching difficulty is expected to increase due to high temperatures, further reducing demand for chicks and leading to a continued decline in chick prices in the second quarter [8].