Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-30 08:27Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with net profit, pre-provision profit, and operating income showing year-on-year changes of +1.4%, -4.5%, and -1.0% respectively [1] Development Trends - Profit growth has improved, with net profit growth increasing by 0.4 percentage points compared to 2024, primarily due to a decrease in credit costs and a 13.5% year-on-year decline in asset impairment losses [2] - Operating income growth has decreased, with other non-interest income falling by 10.6% year-on-year, a decline of 15.8 percentage points compared to 2024, attributed to increased volatility in bond and equity markets [2] - Net interest income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point compared to 2024, mainly due to significant pressure from interest margin repricing in Q1 [2] - Total assets and credit grew by 7.4% and 8.7% year-on-year respectively, with both metrics showing an increase of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - Key areas of growth include technology finance credit up by 11.3%, energy-saving and carbon-reduction enterprise credit up by 7.5%, inclusive small and micro loans up by 5.9%, and elderly care industry credit up by 13.8% [2] - The company expects the annual growth rate of RMB credit in 2025 to remain consistent with 2024, focusing on key sectors and increasing the proportion of retail credit [2] Asset Quality - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.30% at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [3] - The proportion of special mention loans decreased by 5 basis points to 1.52%, while overdue loans remained stable at 1.38% [3] - The provision coverage ratio is at 200.4%, showing a slight decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - Retail loan non-performing loan ratio increased by 10 basis points to 1.18% compared to the end of last year, with special mention and overdue loan ratios also showing slight increases [3] - The company anticipates that uncertainties in tariff policies may impact credit for enterprises in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and plans to optimize credit structure to support domestic demand industries [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and valuation, with current A-share prices corresponding to 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, and H-share prices also at 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 0.4 times for 2026 [4] - The target price for A-shares remains at 9.72 CNY, corresponding to 0.7 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price [4] - The target price for H-shares remains at 7.93 HKD, corresponding to 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 0.5 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.4% from the current price [4]