LEAD INTELLIGENT(SZ:300450) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-30 08:48Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance fell short of market expectations, with significant declines in revenue and net profit due to reduced capital expenditure demand in the lithium battery industry and impairment provisions impacting profitability more than revenue [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 11.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7%, and a net profit of 286 million, down 83.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the downturn in the lithium battery sector [1] - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of financial recovery with revenue of 3.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.42%, and a net profit of 365 million, down 35.3% year-on-year, but a positive shift from negative to positive on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - The operating cash flow turned positive at 864 million in Q1 2025, indicating a potential recovery in financial health [1] Product Performance - The revenue from lithium battery intelligent equipment significantly dragged down overall performance in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 39.18%, while other segments like intelligent logistics systems saw growth of 30.49% [1] - The company anticipates a marginal recovery in 2025, driven by a rebound in domestic capital expenditure in the lithium battery sector [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was relatively stable at 34.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin fell to 2.4%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year due to impairments and rising expenses [2] - The company expects profitability to stabilize in 2025 as product mix improves, particularly with a decrease in the proportion of revenue from the solar industry [2] Market Trends - Domestic demand is expected to recover due to increased capacity utilization among major clients like Ningde and BYD, leading to new capital expenditure [3] - The company is also expanding its presence in Europe and making inroads with Japanese and Korean clients, which may enhance capital expenditure in both domestic and international markets [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 27.2% to 1.59 billion, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 2.29 billion [4] - The target price has been adjusted down by 13.2% to 25, reflecting a P/E ratio of 25 for 2025 and 17 for 2026, with a potential upside of 28.7% from the current stock price [4]